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(2) Outlook for FY2009
Ocean shipping markets for dry bulkships, tankers, and containerships have slowed down in step with the global economic downturn, but China's economic index in particular is showing signs that the slump has bottomed out. Looking ahead to the next fiscal year, we assume that the market will show a degree of recovery starting in the summer of 2009. In addition, we plan to push forward with our group-wide ¥40 billion cost reduction efforts and ensure stable long-term profits. In the dry bulker market, supply pressure from newly built vessels may pose the risk of a slowdown in the market. However, China's demand for iron ore remains high despite protracted price negotiations with major ore suppliers. When these negotiations conclude, we can expect to see a rise in the Cape-size freight rate market. Looking at tankers, both crude oil and petroleum product tanker markets remain at record low levels, but both the U.S. Department of Energy and OPEC expect petroleum demand to rise starting in the second half of FY2009. The market is likely to have recovered by winter, when demand becomes strong. In the car carrier business, although the unit volume has declined following the large adjustment in production, we expect the inventory levels to ease back by the summer, with a corresponding upturn in transport volume starting in the second half of FY2009. In the containership business, whilst working vigorously to restore freight rate levels, we will push ahead with rationalization measures for all ship types, including lay up of surplus ships, scrapping of aged vessels, and return of short-term chartered vessels. However, we realize that a full recovery of seaborne trade will take some time. In consideration of these prospects, we project consolidated revenue for FY2009 of ¥1,400 billion; consolidated operating income of ¥80 billion; consolidated ordinary income of ¥80 billion, and consolidated net income of ¥40 billion. |